\nDyab Abou Jahjah<\/strong>, 20 septembre 2024<\/p>\nD\u00e8s le 8 octobre, avec Gaza en \u00e9tat de si\u00e8ge et confront\u00e9 \u00e0 d’incessantes frappes a\u00e9riennes et \u00e0 des pertes civiles massives, le Hezbollah a assum\u00e9 un r\u00f4le de d\u00e9fenseur en ouvrant un autre front en vue d’imposer \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl un conflit \u00e0 deux volets.<\/p>\n
Le message est clair. Le Hezbollah ne restera pas passif alors que Gaza est soumis \u00e0 une brutalit\u00e9 sans nom. Mais il a \u00e9galement choisi d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment de limiter ses attaques \u00e0 des cibles militaires, signalant ainsi qu’il ne veut pas d’une escalade vers une guerre totale.<\/p>\n
Cette strat\u00e9gie duale est le reflet d’un dilemme. D’une part, le Hezbollah ne peut rester les bras crois\u00e9s alors qu’Isra\u00ebl intensifie sa campagne g\u00e9nocidaire contre Gaza. En tant qu’acteur cl\u00e9 de l’axe de la r\u00e9sistance, il est forc\u00e9 d’agir. Nasrallah a expliqu\u00e9 clairement que le Hezbollah va continuer de s’opposer \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl tant que persistera l’agression contre Gaza.<\/p>\n
D’autre part, le Hezbollah ne veut pas d’une guerre avec Isra\u00ebl parce qu’il reconna\u00eet qu’Isra\u00ebl a emprunt\u00e9 une voix g\u00e9nocidaire et que ce qui se passe \u00e0 Gaza pourrait tr\u00e8s bien se passer au Liban aussi.<\/p>\n
Isra\u00ebl ne fait pas la guerre en respectant les r\u00e8gles \u00e9tablies ou les normes morales. Au lieu de cela, il m\u00e8ne des campagnes d’une insigne l\u00e2chet\u00e9 \u00e0 partir des airs ou par le biais de strat\u00e9gies trompeuses. Cela signifie que des dizaines de milliers de Libanais pourraient \u00eatre massacr\u00e9s, en cas de conflit \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle.<\/p>\n
Alors que le Hezbollah est en mesure de combattre pendant des ann\u00e9es, et m\u00eame au-del\u00e0 de la tol\u00e9rance d’Isra\u00ebl \u00e0 la douleur, il est \u00e9galement conscient du fait que la moindre guerre pourrait se traduire par un nouveau g\u00e9nocide au Liban.<\/p>\n
C’est la raison pour laquelle le Hezbollah s’est impos\u00e9 une extr\u00eame retenue, ciblant jour apr\u00e8s jour des positions militaires isra\u00e9liennes mais \u00e9vitant soigneusement une escalade \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle.<\/p>\n
Netanyahou, par ailleurs, semble avoir l’intention de provoquer le Hezbollah et de l’attirer dans une confrontation ouverte, ce qui, strat\u00e9giquement, n’est gu\u00e8re avis\u00e9. L’arm\u00e9e isra\u00e9lienne combat pour vaincre le Hamas \u00e0 Gaza, une zone bien plus petite, encercl\u00e9e et aux ressources particuli\u00e8rement limit\u00e9es.<\/p>\n
Une guerre avec le Hezbollah serait catastrophique pour Isra\u00ebl, mais le Hezbollah n’entend pas n\u00e9gliger le co\u00fbt civil d’un tel conflit.<\/p>\n
La position morale du Hezbollah pourrait \u00eatre per\u00e7ue comme un d\u00e9savantage du fait qu’il est retenu par sa propre humanit\u00e9. Le Hezbollah consid\u00e8re la guerre comme une confrontation entre des guerriers, ce qui explique pourquoi, r\u00e9cemment, Nasrallah a mis Netanyahou au d\u00e9fi d’entamer une invasion, en sachant bien qu’Isra\u00ebl pr\u00e9f\u00e8re les frappes a\u00e9riennes et la tactique de la terre br\u00fbl\u00e9e \u00e0 la confrontation directe sur le terrain.<\/p>\n
Hezbollah a l’intention d’emp\u00eacher et la guerre et la perspective d\u00e9vastatrice d’un g\u00e9nocide. N’emp\u00eache que, parfois, en d\u00e9pit de tous les efforts, le conflit devient in\u00e9vitable. Les jours \u00e0 venir vont sans doute \u00eatre longs et h\u00e9riss\u00e9s de difficult\u00e9s, alors que la possibilit\u00e9 d’une guerre se profile de plus en plus.<\/p>\n
*****<\/p>\n
Publi\u00e9 le 20 septembre 2024 sur www.aboujahjah.org<\/a>
\nTraduction : Jean-Marie Fl\u00e9mal, Charleroi pour la Palestine<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Aujourd’hui, une fois de plus, le Liban saigne…\u00a0 Mais comment pouvons-nous comprendre ce qui se passe ? Et ce qui est susceptible de se produire ?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,344,137,191],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gaza","category-genocide","category-hezbollah","category-liban"],"yoast_head":"\n
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